Their economic ties have made rapid progress in recent years, with bilateral trade reaching USD$190 billion (A$283 billion) in 2022.
Several factors explain this. One is the complementary nature of their economic ties. China imports oil and natural gas from Russia, while Russia imports many of its consumer goods from China.
Western sanctions since Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, and jacked up further since the invasion of Ukraine last year, have forced Russia to turn to China to compensate for its economic losses.
This partnership is further cemented by the strong personal friendship between Xi and Putin, who have met more than 40 times.
China’s dilemmas
The quagmire of Russia’s bogged-down invasion of Ukraine presents China with uncomfortable policy dilemmas.
While sharing Russian resentment over US dominance, China is less interested in openly disrupting the international system. It’s much more integrated into the global trade and financial structure. China would risk sanctions if it was to offer explicit economic and military assistance to Russia.
At the same time, Beijing remains reluctant to openly condemn Russian actions and can ill afford to cut off ties, given its growing strategic rivalry with the US.
Washington is further imposing restrictions on technology exports to China, and continues to build up regional security arrangements, from AUKUS to its Quad partnership with Australia, India and Japan. So Beijing would prefer to keep Moscow on its side rather than face the US and the West alone.
These explain why there’s little room for China to play an honest mediator between Ukraine and Russia to end the war.
The recent Iran-Saudi Arabia diplomatic truce brokered by Beijing heightened expectations of Xi’s visit and China’s ambition to play a peacemaker role. But the Ukraine case is vastly different and it’s much more difficult to arrive at any quick solution.
Xi’s reported upcoming virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will provide another opportunity, but no more promise, for China to demonstrate its credentials as a peacemaker.