Southeast Asia’s trade and investment have become increasingly intertwined across national boundaries, with China seen as playing a crucial role in integrating these regional economies with China-centred production networks. Since 2008 exports to China from many Southeast Asian countries have slowed down. Explanations for this include the facts that as China has graduated from labour-intensive production, its move up the value chain has reduced its reliance on Southeast Asian markets. As China’s imports from Southeast Asia have commonly been seen as important for the region’s growth, increasing concern has been expressed that the slow-down could significantly affect economic growth in Southeast Asia. Falling exports have, however, been accompanied not only by a decline in the prices of China’s domestic industrial materials, but also by an increase in its outward FDI to Southeast Asia. China appears to have started trading with Southeast Asia in parts – not only final goods – and investing in producing components within what might be thought of as a vertical industrial framework.
The differing impacts of recent developments on individual countries of Southeast Asia may have offsetting effects, thereby affecting the outcome for Southeast Asia as a whole. With this in mind, exports to and investment from China for each Southeast Asian country are presented and analysed below. Empirical evidence suggests that exports to China play a determining role in the GDP growth of five Southeast Asian member states: viz., Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia and Vietnam. FDI inflows from China have a wider significance for most Southeast Asian countries (including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam), and are particularly important for member states comprising ASEAN-6.